Moore’s Law to continue for “at least another decade” as chips will continue to shrink

September 20, 2007 – The axiom known as Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors on a chip should double every 24 months, is expected by its namesake to continue for at least another decade, Dr Gordon Moore has told the BBC News website.

“Eventually, however, we’re approaching the dimensions of individual atoms and that’s clearly as far as we can go down the path of shrinking dimensions.”  Moore’s law was first articulated in 1965 and then revised in 1975.  More transistors have been packed onto a chip by reducing the size of the transistors and thus packing more of them onto the chip.

The next generation of Intel chips, dubbed Penryn chips and expected in November, will contain transistors with features of 45 nanometres and pack 410mn transistors.  Their successor, named Nehalem, is expected to nearly double the number of transistors on each chip to 731mn transistors and will be launched in 2008.  Other companies planning to sell chips based on 45nm technology include IBM, which intends to sell them in 2008 along with partners Toshiba, Sony and AMD.

To overcome the problems of such a tiny scale, Intel and cohorts have replaced the gate dialectrics, previously made from silicon dioxide, with the metal hafnium, which has a greater ability to store electrical charge.  Dr Moore, co-founder of Intel, described the use of new materials and its successful integration into working components as “the biggest change in transistor technology” since the late 1960s.